Predicting The Cross Country State Championships

District meet results finally wrapped on Saturday morning, officially locking in our state championship field for Saturday at Lane Community College in Eugene. There’s lots to understand about this, so I will have a thorough breakdown of the teams there and the individuals who qualified separate of their teams, then make my final predictions for who brings home the state titles!

3A/2A/1A

The first group to go on Saturday will be our smallest schools, whom of which encompass just about every place in the state. Here are the list of teams and individuals who qualified for state this season:

District 1: Vernonia, Catlin Gabel, OES

District 1 Individual: Makena Houston (Columbia Christian), Olyvia Oeverman (St. Stephen’s Academy), Mikenzy Rosen (Horizon Christian)

District 2: Kennedy, Harrisburg, Taft, Blanchet Catholic

District 2 Individual: Daisy Lalonde (East Linn Christian), Jordan White (Neah-Kah-Nie), Athena Lau (Scio)

District 3: Union, Burns

District 3 Individual: Kallyn Wilkins (Condon), Ashley Jentsch (La Pine)

District 4: Bandon, Pleasant Hill, Myrtle Point

District 4 Individual: Callie Sarnoski (Oakland)

State Breakdown: Bandon is clearly the best team in this field, showing off their team depth and consistency that will get them the crown this fall. Vernonia has a championship caliber roster is only missing a better final scoring runner, which will ultimately be the difference between them and the Tigers on Saturday in Eugene. The Loggers will give it their all, but Bandon will ultimately come away victorious at Lane CC. Columbia Christian’s Makenna Houston will win the individual title by A LOT, like a full minute or more.

Individual Winner: Makenna Houston (Columbia Christian)

Team Winner: Bandon Tigers

Class 4A

Cowapa: Valley Catholic, Tillamook

Cowapa Individual: Ella Zilli (Astoria), Elise Seppa (Seaside)

Tri-Valley: Estacada, Corbett

Tri-Valley Individual: Hannah MacDuffee (Estacada), Emersyn Alvord (North Marion)

Oregon West: Philomath, Sisters

Oregon West Individual: Aliya Larsen (Newport), Hope Bridge (Stayton)

Sky Em: Marist, Siuslaw

Sky Em Individual: Alyssa Johnson (Elmira)

Skyline: Klamath Union, Phoenix

Skyline Individual: Natalie Sandeen (Hidden Valley)

GOL: La Grande, Baker

GOL Individual: NONE

State Breakdown: So which Sky Em team wins state? Its a two way race between Marist and Siuslaw, both of whom flex the best rosters in the state this season. Marist is front heavy with top ten runners in Jennifer Tsai and Emilie Nelson, while Siuslaw is more consistent with Rylee Colton leading the way for the Vikings. This one will likely be closer than we anticipate, but I like Marist’s odds of taking the crown and keeping it in Eugene this fall. This race will be one of the closest ones to watch on Saturday at Lane CC. Watch for Phoenix to sweep the first two spots on the podium as well, with a drag race being likely between Sophia Stubblefield and Kyla Potratz for the individual title.

Individual Winner: Sophia Stubblefield (Phoenix)

Team Winner: Marist Catholic Spartans

Class 5A

Northwest Oregon – Wilsonville, Putnam, La Salle Prep

Northwest Oregon Individual – Hannah Hayduk (St. Helens)

Midwestern – Ashland, Crater, Thurston, Springfield

Midwestern Individual: Artana Nice (North Eugene)

Mid-Willamette: Corvallis, Crescent Valley, Dallas, Silverton

Mid-Willamette Individual: Megumi Ludlow (West Albany), Isabel Swain (North Salem)

Intermountain – Hood River Valley, The Dalles

Intermountain Individual – Morgan Shaw (Ridgeview)

State Breakdown: Well this just isn’t fair at all, Corvallis is going to curb stomp everyone at the 5A state meet. Every one of their scoring runners places in the Top 15 of the state, which means we could possibly see a ridiculously low score of 40-45, with anything sub-40 being a bit of a stretch. The Spartans counterparts from Corvallis, Crescent Valley, will easily take second and the individual title with Freshman Emily Wisniewski leading the charge for the Raiders. The City of Corvallis owns 5A cross country this season, that’s all you really need to know for this meet.

Individual Winner: Emily Wisniewski (Crescent Valley)

Team Winner: Corvallis Spartans

Class 6A

PIL – Lincoln, Ida B. Wells, Franklin

PIL Individual: NONE

Metro – Jesuit, Sunset, Mountainside

Metro Individual: NONE

Pacific – Sherwood, Newberg, Glencoe

Pacific Individual: NONE

Mt. Hood – Central Catholic, Barlow, Clackamas

Mt. Hood Individual: NONE

Three Rivers – Lakeridge, Lake Oswego, Tigard

Three Rivers Individual: Kate Sousley (West Linn)

Mountain Valley – Summit, South Salem, Bend

Mountain Valley Individual: Sara Abbott (Sprague), Gitte Lonigan (West Salem)

Southwest – South Eugene, North Medford, Grants Pass

Southwest Individual: Katryn Gilbert (Sheldon), Elizabeth Eckman (Roseburg)

State Breakdown: Will the Summit dynasty keep rolling or will Jesuit break it up? That’s the big question that the 6A state championships this season. The Crusaders have their best cracks at Summit in Eugene with Chloe Foerster leading their team. Sisters transfer Ella Thorsett has emerged as the shining star for the Storm this season, setting up an epic clash between these two 6A powers. Lake Oswego’s Kate Peters will have a fight with Foerster for the race win, potentially playing a role in the bigger picture of the meet. In the end, I think Peters plays party crasher and Summit keeps the dynasty going.

Individual Winner: Kate Peters (Lake Oswego)

Team Winner: Summit Storm

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