Bracketology 2022: Dissecting A Much Clearer State Landscape From 6A To 1A

By this point, just about every league is halfway through their schedule, bringing much needed clarity to a landscape that has been greatly affected by COVID, injuries, and more this season. Here is where the state stands for the playoffs as we close out January!

Class 6A

Conference Bids

Portland Interscholastic: Benson, Wells, Jefferson

Metro: Jesuit, Beaverton, Mountainside

Pacific: Forest Grove, Sherwood, McMinnville

Mt. Hood: Barlow, Clackamas, Sandy

Three Rivers: Lakeridge, Oregon City, West Linn

Mountain Valley: West Salem, Mountain View, South Salem

Southwest: South Medford, Sheldon, Grants Pass

At-Large Bids

Comfortable: Tualatin, Westview, Cleveland, St. Mary’s Academy

Wiggle Room: Summit, McMinnville, Grant, Tigard

On The Bubble: Bend, Lincoln, Newberg, Liberty, South Eugene

Outside Looking In: Canby, Southridge, McNary, David Douglas

Analysis: The projected conference bids aren’t reflective of the current standings, as some teams haven’t faced one another yet or have played more league games. However, based upon their track record this season, I can make pretty safe bets on those teams. With Sandy or David Douglas getting an at-large bid from the Mt. Hood, it’ll shrink the cut-off line to #31 in the OSAA Rankings since those teams aren’t inside the Top 32. So while 32 teams make it, #31 is the spot bubble teams need to pay attention to as we hit the home stretch in January.

Class 5A

Conference Bids

Northwest Oregon: Wilsonville, La Salle Prep, Hillsboro, Putnam

Midwestern: Willamette, Crater, Springfield, Churchill

Mid-Willamette: West Albany, Crescent Valley, Corvallis, Silverton

Intermountain: Crook County, Ridgeview, Pendleton

At-Large Bid

On The Bubble: North Bend, Thurston, Central

Outside Looking In: Lebanon

Analysis: 5A is a bit tricky since there’s only one at-large bid up for grabs, making those conference bids ever more important. If we ended today, North Bend would get the final playoff spot since they’re the highest ranked of the non-bid teams, but all the bubble teams can move into that driver’s seat down the stretch while Lebanon needs some help to pull it off.

Class 4A

Conference Bids

Cowapa: Banks, Astoria, Valley Catholic

Tri-Valley: Corbett, Gladstone, Madras

Oregon West: Philomath, Stayton, Cascade

Sky Em League: Junction City, Marshfield, Marist

Skyline: Klamath Union, Mazama, North Valley

Greater Oregon: Baker, McLoughlin, La Grande

At-Large Bids

Comfortable: Woodburn, Henley, Hidden Valley

Wiggle Room: Sweet Home

On The Bubble: North Marion, Sisters, Seaside, Newport

Outside Looking In: Molalla, Cottage Grove

Analysis: The 4A bracket is divided into two parts: Main bracket and play-in bracket, which can confuse many when understanding who goes. However, it’s the Top 3 in each league plus the six highest ranked non-auto bids. The biggest watches will be on the bubble, as each of these six teams are fighting for likely two spots and it’ll come down to the final week as per normal.

Class 3A

Conference Bids

Lewis and Clark: Riverdale, De La Salle North Catholic

PacWest: Amity, Yamhill-Carlton

Coastal Range: Willamina, Rainier

Mountain Valley: Harrisburg, Santiam Christian

Far West: Douglas, Sutherlin

Eastern Oregon: Nyssa, Vale

At-Large Bids

Locks: Burns, Riverside

On The Bubble: Brookings-Harbor, Dayton, Taft

Outside Looking In: Creswell, Clatskanie

Analysis: The first real at-large locks come from Class 3A, as Burns and Riverside are comfortably in the Top 10 of the OSAA Rankings, all but solidifying their playoff status given the gap between them and the other at-large teams. Like 4A, the drama will come down to the final at-large bids, for which two are locked in and two are available, yet five teams have a realistic crack at them.

Class 2A

Conference Bids

Northwest: Faith Bible, Vernonia

Tri-River: Gervais, Salem Academy

Central Valley: Central Linn, Oakland

Sunset: Coquille, Bandon

Southern Cascade: Lakeview, Bonanza

Blue Mountain: Union, Stanfield

At-Large Bids

Locks: Oakridge, Colton

On The Bubble: Western Christian, Enterprise, Waldport, Nestucca, Monroe

Outside Looking In: Jefferson

Analysis: Just like their 3A counterparts, Oakridge and Colton are all but guaranteed playoff teams at this point. Whether Oakland gets knocked to the bubble from conference play will be something to watch, as will the final two at-large bids given the close proximity of all the teams.

Class 1A

Conference Bids

Valley 10: Damascus Christian, Country Christian, North Clackamas Christian

Casco: St. Paul, Livingstone Adventist, Perrydale

Mountain West: Mohawk, Eddyville, Triangle Lake

Skyline: North Douglas, Yoncalla, Umpqua Valley Christian

Mountain Valley: North Lake/Paisley, Trinity Lutheran, Rogue Valley Adventist

Big Sky: Ione/Arlington, South Wasco County, Echo

Old Oregon League: Nixyaawii, Joseph, Wallowa

High Desert: Crane, Jordan Valley, Adrian

On The Bubble: Crow, Pacific, Condon, Powder Valley

Analysis: This is the most straightforward of all classes: Finish Top 3 in conference and you go to state, there are no auto-bids. The bubble teams are within a game of that cut-off spot with performances that show they can get in, everyone else is pretty much set already.

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