Predicting The Entire 6A And 5A Hoops Field – 2022’s 1st Edition

We’re less than a month away from the playoffs, with much more to be decided between now and then. For the most part, the playoff field is shaping up pretty nicely with some question marks still to be determined as we hit the home stretch. Today, I will predict the entire hoops field for Classes 6A and 5A, with ones for 4A/3A/2A/1A coming on Sunday. I’ll also be releasing another edition of these in the second week of February. All of these predictions are rooted in knowledge of the OSAA rankings system, the playoff system, and what we know about the teams with their track records. So, lets head down the rabbit hole:

Class 6A Top 16 Seeds (1st Round Host Teams) – Listed in Order from #1 to #16

Top 16: Beaverton, Jesuit, South Medford, Barlow, Clackamas. Benson, Mountainside, Lakeridge, Wells, Oregon City, Jefferson, Westview, Sheldon, Tualatin, Forest Grove, Mountain View

Class 6A Conference Bids (Top 3 In Each League)

Portland Interscholastic: Benson, Jefferson, Wells

Metro: Beaverton, Jesuit, Westview

Pacific: Sherwood, Forest Grove, McMinnville

Mt. Hood: Barlow, Clackamas, Sandy

Three Rivers: Lakeridge, Oregon City, Tualatin

Mountain Valley: West Salem, South Salem, Mountain View

Southwest: South Medford, Sheldon, Grants Pass

Class 6A At-Large Bids (Highest Ranked 11 Non-Auto Bid Teams)

IN: Mountainside, Grants Pass, West Linn, Cleveland, St. Mary’s Academy, Tigard, Grant

ON THE BUBBLE: Bend, Lincoln, Summit, Liberty, Southridge

CLOSE BUT OUT: Newberg, South Eugene, Canby, McNary

Analysis

First off, these are predictions and do not reflect what any of the standings look like, I am looking beyond those to make hypotheticals on how it will likely shake out come next month. Secondly, the field will be cut-off at #31 with Sandy being a party crasher from the Mt. Hood Conference and outside the Top 32 (#37). There are still lots of games to be played and some big ones haven’t been yet, so anything is really possible with seeding and falling in or out of the field. I’m confident that this is an 85+ percent accurate look at the playoffs, with some bubble teams possibly messing things up or an upset happening, but I’ll update the projections later next month to reflect what has happened since. One last note: Seedings are not contingent on anything in the OSAA, so no matter whether you are an auto bid or not, you will be placed in that seed regardless.

Class 5A Top 8 Seeds (1st Round Host Teams) – Listed From #1 To #8

Top 8: Willamette, Crook County, Corvallis, Silverton, Wilsonville, Crater, West Albany, Springfield

Class 5A Conference Bids (Top 4 from the NWOC, Midwestern, and Mid-Willamette, Top 3 from the Intermountain)

NWOC: Wilsonville, Putnam, La Salle Prep, Hillsboro

Midwestern: Willamette, Crater, Springfield, Churchill

Mid-Willamette: Corvallis, Crescent Valley, Silverton, West Albany

Intermountain: Crook County, Ridgeview, Pendleton

Class 5A At-Large Bid (Highest Ranked Non-Auto Bid From Midwestern or Mid-Willamette)

IN: Central

CLOSE BUT OUT: North Bend, Thurston, Lebanon

Analysis

Class 5A is wonky with how the playoff bid system works, but it is what it is. Again, these are predictions and may not reflect how the standings/rankings actually look at this moment. This one will be 90%+ accurate once the update comes in a couple weeks, there isn’t much drama on any front with the exception of playoff seeding in the Top 8 and the final playoff bid.

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