Breaking Down And Predicting 1A’s First Round Games

The brackets are locked in, seeds are set, pairings are known! Now it is time to dissect them with an objective lens, looking at each pairing and making predictions on how they will turn out.

North Clackamas Christian (13-9) at Ione/Arlington (15-5)

One of the surprising teams out of 1A this year, Ione/Arlington has passed every hurdle they have faced this season, with the exception of their 1-2 record against Big Sky champion Echo. This team has plenty of seniority on the roster and will be a tough outing against North Clackamas Christian, who has struggled against better opponents on their schedule this year. They came through in the clutch to beat Southwest Christian and make it to the playoffs but beating the Cardinals on the road is a much harder task. I like Ione/Arlington advancing to the next round, their home-court advantage is going to push them through.

Pick: Ione/Arlington – 7 Point Favorite

Trout Lake (11-3) at Powder Valley (14-11)

It took them a bit to get going this season and find their identity, but the Powder Valley Badgers came together to get a playoff bid from the Old Oregon League. Trout Lake was thrown on a Big Sky hiatus for a few weeks, but they returned with full force and almost beat Echo to advance to the conference title game. The Mustangs are an underrated team and their resume reflects what they can do. Powder Valley will put up a fight and Trout Lake will have to earn the win, but I’ll put my money on Trout Lake winning on the road at Powder Valley.

Pick: Trout Lake – 3 Point Favorite

Wallowa (16-8) at Jordan Valley (22-5)

Unlike the first two pairings, Jordan Valley is the heavy favorite to advance into the main bracket against Wallowa. Big props to Wallowa for beating Joseph to get in and almost beating Powder Valley, but Jordan Valley is a 1A title contender and won’t fall into a trap game in the opening round. Take Jordan Valley all the way to the bank, it’s like putting valuables into a safety deposit box.

Pick: Jordan Valley – 20 Point Favorite

Prairie City (13-10) at Rogue Valley Adventist (18-4)

These are two teams that have had polar opposite experiences: Rogue Valley has taken care of business against their league and almost won the conference tournament. Prairie City has been all over the place with consistency, but they almost beat Jordan Valley early in the season, showing a flash of their potential. I don’t think the Red Tail Hawks will lose at home to Prairie City, but the Panthers might take them deep into the game and make it interesting.

Pick: Rogue Valley Adventist – 7 Point Favorite

Chiloquin (9-8) at Yoncalla (18-4)

Yoncalla only has five girls on the roster, but they are a talented bunch who look to go deep in the playoffs. Chiloquin knocked off North Lake/Paisley to advance to state, but they struggled to find their rhythm on a constant basis while in MVL play this year. The Eagles should win pretty easily at home, Chiloquin doesn’t have any indicator of giving them a battle on the road. Bet on Yoncalla and the Fantabulous Five.

Pick: Yoncalla – 10 Point Favorite

Pacific (12-12) at Mohawk (19-5)

An upbeat team living a dream against a team that just got shocked to the play-in bracket in their conference title game, it sounds like the storyline for an upset brewing. Pacific cannot believe they are in the state playoffs, which required an overtime dub over Umpqua Valley Christian to knock out the Monarchs and advance the Pirates. Mohawk is shaking off a loss to Eddyville in their league championship, possibly presenting some vulnerability to them. It’ll be fascinating to see how Mohawk responds to the loss and facing a team with nothing to lose.

Pick: Mohawk – 5 Point Favorite

Crow (15-8) at Perrydale (12-10)

I’m giving this one up to the road team, one that was capable of winning their league title with some better played games. Perrydale proved to be vulnerable down the stretch in the Casco schedule, struggling to beat one-dimensional opponents that rely on a lone player. My gut says Crow will win on the road against the Pirates, giving the Mountain West League all three of their teams into the next round.

Pick: Crow – 7 Point Favorite

Livingstone Adventist Academy (15-4) at Country Christian (21-6)

Simply put, the Cougars will have this game locked up around halftime. Country Christian is a 1A title contender and will be into the Elite Eight, Final Four, or crowned champion this season. Livingstone Adventist relies upon one player to do it all, making it pretty simple for Country Christian to plan around that.

Pick: Country Christian – 20 Point Favorite

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