One of my favorite things in conversation is talking hypotheticals, whether it be pro sports, high school sports, politics, etc., it is just fun to think about what could possibly happen. For this particular writing, let’s talk about the hypothetical state champions in track this season, specifically the team champions. Looking through the current simulations, here are where each class stands for who will take the state championship in May:
Let’s make this crystal clear: Only two teams are realistically competing for the state title in Oregon’s largest class, and they both hail from the same conference, Oregon City and Lake Oswego. The Lakers have a heavy edge in the track events, while the Pioneers are a more balanced team that is good on both ends. From track events alone, Lake Oswego is looking at likely 70-73 points just from those, with an additional 6-10 points coming from field events.
With a range of 76-83 points, it is a large order to take on for Oregon City. In order to defeat Lake Oswego. the Pioneers will need to steal some points in the 200 meters and high jump events, which serve as the likely ones that can put them over the top if everything else falls in line for them. Taken at face value, Oregon City is looking at 74-76 points, but possibly a ceiling of 80 points is in reach and could be enough to take down the Lakers.
The reign of North Salem is coming to an end in 2022, as the heavy graduation losses have taken their toll on the Vikings, leaving the door open for Crescent Valley to take home the blue trophy in Eugene. Just like their counterparts in Lake Oswego, the Raiders rely heavily on points from track events to get them through on the scoreboard. In a moderate estimate, the Raiders are looking at 74-76 points in the state championships, which would be more than enough to take it home. In a dissection of the rest, North Salem still has enough firepower to take the silver with their balanced team, looking at a score between 45-50 points to come in runner-up to the loaded Raiders team.
Who you got: Cascade or North Valley? These two teams are the deepest in Class 4A, presenting depth in both track and field events, making this an interesting battle to watch in Eugene. Emma Gates and Karlee Touey are the two faces of these teams, racking up the points that will be the bulk of what they record at state. As for those projections, the North Valley range is about 70-75 and Cascade sits at around 65-70 points, giving the edge to the Knights in the race for state.
Sutherlin dominated in 2021, but this race is far from a blowout as it stands, in fact it is a three-team shootout to the finish. The state champions tally will be in the range of 55-60 points, with potentially milking out a couple points above that. So, who is in it? It’ll come down to Catlin Gabel, Sutherlin, and Cascade Christian, the three deepest teams in this class. The Eagles sit on the low end with a projected 52–56 point total, Sutherlin comes in with 57-61 point projections, and Cascade Christian is looking at around 58-62 points.
The defending 2A champions are in the driver’s seat again for the 2022 title, aided by a diverse range of talents that will ultimately stand in the way of another team being able to pursue them. This is going to be a senior led effort that leads to back-to-back state titles for the Rams, who will end up likely in the 56-60 point range to take the title.
In our final class comes another clear state favorite, as the Crane Mustangs have a loaded roster that shines in many different events. There’s plenty of youthful talent over in Adrian and Cove, but they don’t have the depth or numbers to outdo Crane this season. As for a point total, look for the Mustangs to finish with 65-70 points to win the 1A title this season.